The news of Aroldis Chapman's defection last week very quickly excited a lot of people. Free agent 21-year-old left-handed starters with 100 mph fastballs don't really grow on trees or, well, anywhere and the immediate speculation on Chapman was that he could command a contract in the eight-figure neighborhood. The next day, the New York Times penned a piece on Chapman that mentioned almost casually, like it was common knowledge, that the Cuban super-prospect was actually 26 years old and not 21 as commonly thought. Because Chapman pitched in America in the World Baseball Classic this spring, this claim surprised a lot of people. Baseball America's J.J. Cooper (who also writes for our NFL FanHouse) did some digging on the subject and in a story posted at BA today gives his findings. As far as he or anyone else can tell right now, it still appears that all signs point to Chapman being 21.
You can read Cooper's post for the full logic -- the source of the discrepancy appears to be some miscommunication during the WBC between an NYT editor and BA's John Manuel -- but he makes another good argument:
International scouts have been keeping an eye on him every since he broke into Cuba's Serie Nacional late in 2005 as an 18-year-old. He made his first appearance on the Cuba National Team at the Pan American Games 2007 as a 19-year-old. If he was 26, there would have been no logical reason for Cuba to have kept him under wraps for several years when he could have been helping the team in the World Baseball Classic and other national tournaments.Cuba was doing their best to keep Chapman in-house to prevent his defection (his presence with the team at the tournament in the Netherlands was unexpected for that very reason) but given the importance of baseball in the country, it seems crazy they'd keep such a huge talent under wraps.
Age questions will probably dog Chapman for much of his career, just as they seem to for any prominent Latin American player in this era. Right now, though, there doesn't seem to be reason to believe he's any age but the one he's listed at.
