Handicapping the Home Run Derby: Can Anyone Top Albert Pujols?

If one theme has emerged during the first half of the 2009 season in the National League, it's that it's Albert Pujols' world and we're all just living in it. After nine superb seasons in which he's only finished out of the top four in MVP voting once, he's somehow on pace for his best season yet.

With this year's Home Run Derby in St. Louis and Pujols making a point to perform in front of the home crowd, it's essentially him against the field Monday night. Do Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Pena, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz, or Brandon Inge stand any sort of chance of spoiling Pujols' parade?

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The answer, of course, is that they certainly do. In recent years, it hasn't been uncommon for a player to put on a huge performance in the early rounds and run out of gas later on. Does anyone actually remember that Justin Morneau beat Josh Hamilton last year?

Let's stack this year's contestants up in order, starting with the long shots and ending with the best chances to win it.

The "Line-Drive" Guys

Joe Mauer and Brandon Inge fall into this category. They're piling up the home runs faster than normal this year (already a career-high 15 for Mauer and 21 for Inge), but they're not really home run hitters. Think back to when Jason Bay put up a goose egg in Detroit in 2005 or Evan Longoria (three) and Chase Utley (five) last year. These guys are in a bit over their heads.

Home Run Derby Rules, Order
Rules: Each player gets 10 outs in each of the three rounds, with four players advancing to the semifinal round, where their home run totals will be carried over, and then two advancing to the final round, where their totals will go back to zero. In the event of any tie, there will be a "swing-off," with each player involved getting five swings, then three swings if a tie remains after.
Player	Odds
1. Nelson Cruz	+800
2. Prince Fielder	+500
3. Brandon Inge	+1200
4. Adrian Gonzalez	+650
5. Carlos Pena	+650
6. Ryan Howard	+250
7. Joe Mauer	+800
8. Albert Pujols	+220
Odds from The Greek Sportsbook

The Anomaly

Who knows what to make of Nelson Cruz in this thing? He's shown impressive minor-league power during his career, but he's suddenly exploded on to the scene as a power threat in the past two seasons, whacking 44 combined homers between Triple-A and Texas last year with another 22 in the first half of this season. He won't be a favorite to move past the first round thanks to the big sluggers that we're about to discuss, but he could easily get in a groove and blow everyone out of the water. Honestly, he could hit 15 homers in the first round or he could hit three; neither result would surprise me.

The Left-Handed Boppers

This category is packed in 2009 with Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, and Carlos Pena. Each is a big guy with a sweet left-handed swing made for popping the ball over the fence. Howard and Fielder have 22 homers apiece, while Gonzalez and Pena clock in at 24 apiece. Trying to separate which of these guys will perform and which won't is pretty much all guesswork.

The Overwhelming Favorite

Albert Pujols. Mainly because of the home crowd and the desire to impress them. Well, that and because he's the best hitter on the face of this planet and every other planet within several hundred light years (at least).

The Vaguely Informed Prediction

Neither Inge nor Mauer will advance past the first round. Mauer may or may not put up a zero. Prince Fielder fails to advance, too, because he'll try way too hard and hit a bunch of popups. I think Cruz will advance, so I've got to knock one more off from the Howard/Pena/Gonzalez crowd. On a pure guess, I'll say Gonzalez won't advance, because he strikes me as someone that doesn't have much experience with this kind of thing. Pujols will wow the crowd with a big number that jumps way out ahead of the field.

That big number puts Pujols through to the finals, while Carlos Pena outlasts the other three sluggers because, I dunno, I got a gut feeling about him. He goes on to beat Pujols in the finals by some silly score like 3-2, but since it's after 11 PM, hardly anyone is watching and ESPN goes and interviews Pujols first anyways. Everyone that is awake once again wonders why the person that hit the most home runs doesn't win the actual Derby.