After Confidence-Boosting Series, Cubs Face Real Test in Philly

As has been covered ad nauseum, the Cubs fell colossally short of expectations in 2009's first half. Since the All-Star break, the Cubs have won four straight games and begun to resemble last year's bunch in several ways. The biggest sign of positivity was Alfonso Soriano hitting home runs in consecutive games, but there was more. Mike Fontenot looked like the '08 version instead of the slapper we've seen for the past six weeks. Aramis Ramirez hit his first home run since returning from a season-altering shoulder injury. Kevin Gregg continued to outperform Kerry Wood -- whom he replaced as closer. Rich Harden looked unhittable.

Of course, we have to throw a gigantic asterisk next to the above paragraph. The Cubs were playing the Washington Nationals -- a team on pace to go 46-116.

There are two sides to the thought process here, concerning the Cubs -- who are only two games out in the NL Central and 2 1/2 out in the wild card:

1. The Nationals are so bad, it would have been ridiculous to not sweep them. It was like watching the circus on several occasions when the Nationals were attempting to play the field. I honestly can't remember ever watching a team so bad for four consecutive games.

2. The Nationals are still Major League Baseball players, and winning four in a row against anyone for a team with the talent level of the Cubs is enough to help regain some of the '08 swagger.

Really, it's probably a combination of the two. The Cubs know the Nationals flat-out suck. It's reality. But the positive signs I listed in the introductory paragraph are very real.

- Soriano was almost unbearable to watch for a stretch. From May 19 to July 4, he was just 28-for-164 (.171) with a dreadful .256 slugging percentage. He had completely lost his power and any semblence of confidence. He was swinging at even worse pitches than usual. From July 5 to July 16, we saw some signs of him breaking out (.357 average), but still no power (.429 slugging). All of a sudden, he came through with a clutch three-run blast Saturday night to give the Cubs the lead for good and then hit another bomb, this time a two-run job, for good measure on Sunday afternoon. Anyone who has followed Soriano over the course of his career knows he can go absolutely crazy in home run stretches -- sometimes hitting six or seven in one week.

- Fontenot was handed the second base job after Mark DeRosa was traded in the offseason, but he failed for much of the season. He even dropped below the Mendoza line at one point and has since been thrown into a platoon. In July, though, he is swinging the bat really well. He's hitting .366 with a .918 OPS. Saturday night, he hit his first home run since June 9.

- Ramirez had struggled a bit since returning from a dislocated shoulder, but Friday night he hit a pretty prodigious home run. I can tell you from seeing most of his at-bats since the Cubs acquired him, that swing looked like the Aramis Cubs fans know and love. He'll have his troubles with health for the rest of the year, but that one cut was a sign that he can still drop the hammer.

- Gregg has fought criticism all season because he replaced a fan favorite in Wood and then struggled early in the season. It's tough to win back some of the Bleacher Bums after a rough start. He's certainly trying, though. Since a disastrous outing May 18 against the Astros, Gregg has converted 12 of 14 save chances and compiled an ERA of 1.61. He's been even better recently. Since allowing a game-ending home run in Detroit on June 23, Gregg has been dominant. He's converted all seven save chances, won a game and allowed only one earned run (0.75 ERA).

- Harden has been very up and down this season, but he man-handled the Nats Thursday night. His velocity was up in the mid-90s, which is a good sign his arm feels good. When it does, he can be as good as anyone in the game (remember, he had a 1.77 ERA for the Cubs last year in 12 starts). An interesting trend this season in his splits is how he seems to be a totally different pitcher at night. During the day, Harden is 1-5 with a 7.38 ERA. At night, he's 5-1 with a 2.41 ERA. Lou Piniella has stated he's aware of this trend and will do everything he can to only use Harden at night the rest of the way.

If the Cubs are truly back, we should find out pretty soon. Monday night, they begin a three-game series against the Phillies. Talk about going from one end of the spectrum to the other. Not only are the Phils the defending World Series Champions, but they are now firing on all cylinders. Jimmy Rollins is finally starting to hit and they are getting good starting pitching from several unlikely sources. Brad Lidge is kind of settling down from his early season woes. Zero weaknesses have appeared during the current winning streak -- the champs have won eight straight games and are starting to run away with the NL East (6 1/2 game lead, presently).

It's not as though everything is perfect in Cubbie-land, either. Milton Bradley still can't figure himself out. Piniella has made fixing Bradley his pet project. Aaron Heilman gets himself in trouble constantly due to an inability to work ahead in the count. Carlos Marmol is pretty much unhittable, but he can't throw strikes. His command is still absent. Ryan Dempster is on the shelf and the Cubs have to count on the unproven Kevin Hart to fill in. Geovany Soto is also out, and Koyie Hill is not a serviceable everyday catcher. Also, the Soto injury forces the Cubs to keep Jake Fox and his .958 OPS on the bench most games, as they don't want to burn their backup catcher.

All things considered, this is actually the perfect time to read the barometer and see if the Cubs have actually turned the proverbial corner after resting over the All-Star break. If they can take two of three from the Phillies, we can probably say with confidence they are a real threat once again. If they get swept, it's going to look like the season is unsalvageable.

Ted Lilly and Rodrigo Lopez square off on the hill tonight in Citizen's Bank Park to kick off the series. It could be a playoff preview -- if the Cubs are actually back. We shall see.