Baseball Brunch: Off to the Races

Every Sunday, MLB FanHouse empties out its notebook in Baseball Brunch.

Now that the hands are dealt -- expect for one or two more this month -- we can examine the pennant races to come.

There wasn't much point in assessing the races until after Friday's non-waiver trade deadline, when we know what we're dealing with. Some important pieces will change hands after they clear waivers this month, but they probably won't be difference-makers.

Before we get to the predictions, though, let's talk about one trade that didn't happen.

Toronto held on to Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays had every right to ask for a boatload of prospects for him, as Halladay may be the most reliable pitcher in the game.

The strategy was to either use Halladay for a quick rebuild or keep him and make a run in 2010. An official from another team told FanHouse that strategy comes "right out of the Oakland playbook: load up for a year, take your shot. If it doesn't work, start over."

Remember, Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi came from the A's.

There's one problem, and that's Halladay himself. He was said to be quite motivated to move on, because his goal -- stated publicly -- is to get a chance to pitch in the playoffs.

That won't happen this year. And now that he's been teased with the proposition of moving to a contender, he may itch even more to get out of Toronto. He may be more vocal about what he really wants, which is a shot at October.

One person familiar with the situation assured FanHouse that trading Halladay will get revisited over the winter. He won't be worth quite as much then as he was last week, since the acquiring team gets him for just one season rather than one plus part of a second, but there may be more clubs involved in the bidding.

Halladay and Ricciardi have a good relationship. If Halladay makes it known he's unhappy, Ricciardi may accommodate him.

Until then, though, we have to play two months plus the postseason.

The most compelling race should be in the division that was most active in July trading. And while Cleveland was trying to re-stock its farm system, contenders Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota were all making a move for this year.

Edge to the Tigers.

At least for this year. They figure to get about 12 starts from Jarrod Washburn, which gives them the best one-through-four starting pitchers in the AL. Meanwhile, Jake Peavy figures to make seven starts max for the White Sox because he has to work back from an ankle tendon problem.

That five-start gap is enough for Detroit to hold onto its division lead.

The other three AL playoff teams should be the Red Sox, Angels and Yankees -- even though the latter two didn't make a significant move.

Boston recognized its offensive deficiencies and addressed them with the addition of Victor Martinez. The Angels should hold on because the Rangers seemed to be fading and couldn't pull off a booster deal.

The Yankees have an issue in rotation depth, and maybe some back-end starter will pass through waivers. They need to do something, because if they don't, then if Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain or Sergio Mitre has any kind of issue the rest of the way, the Yankees will have to subtract from their bullpen to fill the hole.

In the NL, the race for two spots between the Rockies, Giants, Cubs, Cardinals, Marlins, Braves and (perhaps) the Mets should be fun.

All but the Mets made some kind of move. The suspicion here is that San Francisco grabs the wild card because all it needed was a little more offense to supplement its pitching. Since the All-Star break, the Giants have lost eight games, and five of those were by the scores of 2-1, 2-0, 4-2, 4-2 and 5-1.

The Phillies will hold on in the East and the Dodgers in the West, leaving the jumbled Central. Like with San Francisco, St. Louis addressed its offensive need and seems OK in the pitching department, so that's the pick.

That gives us a postseason first round of Philadelphia vs. San Francisco and Los Angeles vs. St. Louis. We'll go with a Phils-Cards NLCS and the Phillies back in the World Series.

In the AL, the Angels would play the AL East runner-up (we'll say the Yankees) and the Tigers the AL East winners. We know the Yankees can't beat the Angels, and we'll take Boston over Detroit.

But the Angels aren't quite that good, so they fall to the Red Sox -- meaning a Boston-Philadelphia World Series.

Who wins? Get back to us in October if these predictions are correct.

Overheard and Understood

• Lost in the shuffle after the bungled news conference to announce the decision is the impact of the Mets' firing of Tony Bernazard, who was supposedly overseeing their farm system. Bernazard had detractors inside the organization as well as in the media, but sources said he had ingratiated himself with GM Omar Minaya and COO Jeff Wilpon. One source said Bernazard ran off a number of good minor-league instructors (which has manifested itself when the players have reached the majors) and Gary LaRocque, who at one point ran the scouting and player development departments. LaRocque, the source said, brought a sense of organization to the front office, making up for one of Minaya's weakness -- and that too has been exposed in recent years. "We do a number of things by the seat of the pants," the source said. [LaRocque] was a structure guy. [Minaya] knows he needs a structure guy." Now Minaya has a chance to correct that.

Chart of the Week
It's a lofty comparison, and not a prediction, but look at Mike Schmidt's statistics from his 23rd birthday (July 27, 1972) through his 26th birthday compared to Mark Reynolds' numbers since his 23rd birthday (Reynolds turns 26 on Monday):
Stat	Schmidt	Reynolds
G	404	365
AVG	.244	.262
OBP	.362	.342
SLG	.470	.503
OPS	.832	.845
HR	74	75
RBI	227	229
SO	401	476
BB	234	153
Source: Diamondbacks, STATS LLC

• While getting Cliff Lee, the Phillies kept most of their top young players. "They don't want to give up [lefty J.A.] Happ, and I don't blame them," one scout said. "He's come up with a really good changeup. He throws across his body but is able to get the ball back inside. If you can do that, you're going to be successful." Another scout called outfielder Michael Taylor, now in Triple-A, "the best player in the [Double-A] Eastern League. Plus, plus power. For a big kid, he doesn't strike out a lot. Good pitch recognition. He has a chance to hit for average and power. He can run and throw."

• Four rookies have nine wins: Rick Porcello, Ricky Romero, Jeff Niemann, Matt Palmer. There haven't been four rookie 13-game winners in the same season since 2002 (Ryan Jensen, Kaz Ishii, Rodrigo Lopez, Jason Jennings).

• Philadelphia went 20-7 in July, its most wins in any month since going 20-8 in May 2001, and its winningest July since 1963.

• According to the Elias Sports Bureau, when San Diego beat Cincinnati on Wednesday, it marked the first time since the rookie rule was established in 1957 that three rookies combined on a one-hitter (Mat Latos, Greg Burke and Mike Ekstrom).

• Enough already of people ripping the Pirates or bemoaning the breakup of the team. This isn't the selloff of the 1997 Marlins. At least Pittsburgh is trying, by using what players had value to restock and start all over.

• Colorado has rocketed into contention under interim manager Jim Tracy, but one NL scout said first baseman Todd Helton deserves a lot of the credit. "He's this decade's [Jeff] Bagwell," the scout said, "the star player in the clubhouse who puts the team on his back. He's part of the reason they've recovered."

• Unless there's a rainout, Oakland will play a franchise-record 28 straight days after the All-Star break (July 16-Aug. 12). In fact, the A's have just five off days in the second half because of makeup games.

• Toronto's Marco Scutaro is on pace to be just the fourth shortstop to field .993 or better and average more than three assists per nine innings, after Rey Sanchez in 2000, Mike Bordick in 2002 and Omar Vizquel in 1998.

• When Kansas City got double-digit strikeouts games from starters two nights in a row last weekend (10 for Zack Greinke and 13 for Luke Hochevar) it marked the first time that happened for the Royals since Tom Gordon and Kevin Appier in 1993.