Derrek Lee Says Same Cubs Could Contend in 2010

As the baseball calendar winds down, it's becoming more and more obvious that the Chicago Cubs will not be able to get themselves back into the 2009 wild-card race. As the Cubs were many people's pick to win the National League pennant or even the World Series this year, there's a fair amount of post-mortem analysis already surrounding the Cubbies.

That's not limited to newspaper writers and bloggers, either. Derrek Lee is jumping in on the action, telling the Chicago Sun-Times that "[The Cubs] just haven't played well," and that they could contend in 2010 with basically the same roster if they would just go ahead and, you know, play a little better.

It's certainly true the Cubs have gotten some poor performances this year. Milton Bradley is certainly capable of better than his .265/.388/.401 line and Geovany Soto, Alfonso Soriano, Rich Harden, and Kevin Gregg are all in line for bounce-back seasons in 2010 as well. That might be enough to vault the Cubs back in to some kind of contention next year.

The problem is that the Cubs were already constructed as a veteran team with a small window for success. Bradley, for as poor as his play has been at times this year, is also almost certain to play in more games this year than he has in any season since 2004. He may hit better next year, but that doesn't mean he'll play enough for it to cause a dramatic change in the club's fortunes. That may not apply to Harden (27) and Soto (26), who should both be in their primes, but with Alfonso Soriano turning 34 in January, he may never be the same hitter he was for the Cubs in 2007 and 2008.

The Cubs would be foolish to enter 2010 without at least one or two significant changes to their lineup, but their pitching staff is very quietly creeping up in age as well. Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster will be 34 and 33 respectively, while Carlos Zambrano will be 29 with a quickly climbing inning count that's landed him on the DL both this year and last year.

Lee might be right, and the Cubs might be able to contend with this same group next year, but if they follow that route, it seems much more likely that things will only get worse.