Twins Best Hope for Real Pennant Race

One year ago today, the Arizona Diamondbacks trailed the Dodgers by 3 1/2 games in the NL West. At the time, that was the fourth closest divisional race in the majors, with Boston, Minnesota and the Mets each being within two games of the team they were chasing. Nobody really thought a whole lot of this; with the current six-division format, we had come to take multiple competitive mid-September divisional races for granted.

That's all changed this season though. Transported into 2009, the Dodgers' '08 margin would be the most tenuous of any division lead in baseball.

Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds have five teams with at leaste a 95 percent chance of winning their division, which is nearly unprecedented at this stage of the season. For the first time in years, it's shaping up to be a pretty boring September.

That won't necessarily be the case, though. Even with all the big leads and gaudy percentages, the BP odds indicate there's about a 1 in 4 chance that some team makes a late run and overtakes one of the current frontrunners. Our best hope for a big comeback is the Twins, who are "just" four back of Detroit in the AL Central with 16 games remaining.

That's a sizeable deficit, but not an insurmountable one. For one thing, they're not exactly chasing down a juggernaut; the Tigers have only outscored their opponents by seven runs this season, compared to Minnesota's plus-17 mark. That's not an entirely accurate representation of the two squads, especially since the Twins have key starting pitcher Kevin Slowey on the DL, but the point remains that these two teams are comparable in terms of talent. Detroit has also beein struggling recently, losing seven of 10 to allow Minnesota to creep back into the race.

When you have to make up nearly a game each series though, talent isn't the only factor at work; opportunity plays a role, too.

Fortunately for Minnesota, its remaining schedule has plenty to offer in that category. When you have to make up a lot of ground in a short period of time, the best way to do it is to play the team you're chasing; beginning Friday night, the Twins do just that six times over their final 16 games, matching up against the Tigers both this weekend and in the second-to-last series of the year. Win five of those games and the deficit is gone entirely. Even if Minnesota goes just 4-2 during that stretch, they only have to make up two games over their other three series, which suddenly doesn't seem so overwhelming.

Looking at this weekend's series in Minnesota, the Twins have a tough task in front of them on Saturday, going up against Tigers ace Justin Verlander. They should be in good shape on Sunday though, with Scott Baker (6-1, 2.93 ERA, 65:20 K:BB ratio in his last 12 starts) going up against whoever ends up replacing Jarrod Washburn (scratched with a knee injury) in the rotation.

The likely weekend split makes Friday's game particularly big.

In Brian Duensing, Minnesota isn't exactly throwing a household name out there, but it is going with a pitcher that has been very effective in the majors thus far.

In 66 1/3 innings Duensing has posted a 3.53 ERA, with a 48:26 K:BB ratio and just five home runs allowed. A solid outing by Duensing, who will be going up against Detroit phenom Rick Porcello, would be huge for Minnesota's chances, putting it in a situation where they'd still be in the race if they only managed a split on the weekend.