Wait 'Til Next Year: Rays Will Find Themselves in Contention Again

After last year's shocking World Series appearance, the Tampa Bay Rays came into 2009 with significantly increased expectations. Most were still picking the Yankees and Red Sox to finish in the top two spots on the AL East, but in just one season the Rays had gone from laughingstock to a consensus 90-92 win team.

That hasn't worked out too well for them, as they're currently on pace to win 83 games, which would be 14 fewer than last year. That's disappointing, certainly, but their underlying performance really hasn't been that much worse.

In 2008, Tampa Bay outscored their opponents by 103 runs; so far this season, that figure is 58. So they've clearly been worse in 2009, but their run differential only suggests a four to five win discrepancy between the two years, a stark contrast from their potential drop in the win column.

They also look like they have a chance to contend once again next year. They'll be led by a very strong rotation; former ace Scott Kazmir is gone, but he was a huge disappointment this year anyway, posting a 5.92 ERA before getting traded to the Angels. They have so much pitching talent in the organization that they won't have any problem replacing him.

In 2010, James Shields and Matt Garza will take control of the top of the rotation, with Jeff Niemann and David Price also returning for their second full seasons in the majors. Price has only put up a 4.41 ERA and 1.9 K:BB ratio this season, but the former top prospect has a chance to make big strides forward next season if he is able to get his walk rate down.

Twenty-three year old September callup Wade Davis will likely take over the No. 5 slot, and he will almost certainly be a big upgrade over Andy Sonnanstine's extremely disappointing 2009 campaign. In four starts with the Rays this month, Davis has struck out 28 batters in just 24 1/3 innings, while only walking eight. That's encouraging, especially after he had somewhat disappointing numbers in Triple-A over the first five months of the season.

Tampa Bay's starting rotation, expected to help them contend in the AL East this season, ended up underperforming all year, with a staff ERA right around the league average. With Kazmir gone and Sonnanstine probably no longer starting, its 2010 prospects look significantly better.

The offense has actually lived up to expectations, scoring 4.94 runs per game, fourth in the AL. If they choose to, the Rays have the ability to bring their entire lineup back next season, although they may decide to go in a different direction.

Tampa Bay doesn't have any free agents among their regulars, but it does have club options on both Carl Crawford and Akinori Iwamura. It'd be surprising if it didn't pick up both of those, but a trade is possible, particularly with Crawford. The Rays likely aren't too thrilled with the prospect of paying him $10 million in 2010 when they have an in-house replacement, Desmond Jennings, available for about 5 percent of that cost. The 22-year old Jennings had a .401 OBP between Double-A and Triple-A this year, and could easily step in for the Rays in either left or center.

Ben Zobrist should be expected to regress a bit after a career year, but the offense could improve if guys like Dioner Navarro, B.J. Upton and Pat Burrell bounce back. Navarro has seen his OBP drop nearly 100 points this season, all the way down to an entirely unacceptable .258. Most expected Upton to finally play up to his impressive potential after his breakout October, but that certainly hasn't happened; he's regressed for the second consecutive season. This is a lineup that could score 850 runs in 2010, if those three come back to their career levels and at least most of Zobrist's improvement is real.

The defense should be good again, too, which rounds out a pretty impressive returning core. How strong a team's bullpen is going to be is difficult to project on Opening Day, let alone six months prior, but despite Grant Balfour's decline, Tampa Bay has actually been above average in that category as well, with their relievers putting up a 3.95 ERA.

The division will be a challenge, as always, but the Rays' 2009 record shouldn't be seen as an indication that they won't be a significant factor in the race next year.