National League Division Series: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies

In what's looking like the beginning of a Braves-esque division-dominating streak, the Philadelphia Phillies clinched their third straight NL East crown and head into the postseason with home-field advantage in the Division Series. The reigning champs bring a fantastic 1-2 punch in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels and sport two of the top-10 home run hitters in baseball in Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth.

The Rockies, on the other hand, finished with 92 wins --a franchise record -- but they also completed an amazing run, starting the season 18-28 and going 74-42 after May 19. Clint Hurdle was replaced as manager by Jim Tracy 10 days after the beginning of that run. Call that firing and promotion the catalyst, but remember that the Rockies are bringing three 15-plus game winners (Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Marquis and Jorge De La Rosa) to this brawl.

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Series Schedule

G1	Oct. 7	Phillies 5, Rockies 1 | Box | Ed Price	2:30 PM ET
G2	Oct. 8	Rockies 5, Phillies 4 | Box | Ed Price	2:30 PM ET
G3	Oct. 11	Phillies 6, Rockies 5 | Box | Chris Tomasson	10 PM ET
G4	Oct. 12	Phillies 5, Rockies 4 | Box | Chris Tomasson	6 PM ET

Lineup
No.	Phillies	Pos	Rockies	Pos.
1	J. Rollins	SS	C. Gonzalez	CF
2	S. Victorino	CF	S. Smith	LF
3	C. Utley	2B	T. Helton	1B
4	R. Howard	1B	T. Tulowitzki	SS
5	R. Ibanez	LF	G. Atkins	3B
6	J. Werth	RF	C. Iannetta	C
7	P. Feliz	3B	B. Hawpe	RF
8	C. Ruiz	C	C. Barmes	2B
Rotation
1	C. Hamels	L	U. Jimenez	R
2	C. Lee	L	A. Cook	R
3	J. Blanton	R	J. De La Rosa	L
4	J. Happ	L	J. Marquis	R
CP	R. Madson	R	H. Street	R
SU	B. Lidge	R	F. Morales	L
SU	B. Myers	R	R. Betancourt	R
Scout's Eye View
"Against a team full of hitters who lift the ball out of the yard, and in a home ballpark that's a classic launching pad, a good old-fashioned sinker-ball pitcher may be just the right medicine to contain them." Phillies Scouting Report "This is a lineup that is as geared for the good fastball as any in baseball -- filled with hitters that never met a heater they didn't like." Rockies Scouting Report

Why the Phillies Will Win

Because everyone is telling them that they can't.

The Phillies won it all last season -- uncorking champagne and celebrating like giddy school kids after ousting the Tampa Bay Rays in five games to win their second World Series title. Lightning just doesn't strike twice often these days. The New York Yankees were the last team to repeat as champion, winning three straight titles from 1998-2000.

There's also a nasty little situation brewing in the bullpen. Brad Lidge was perfect in 2008, but he's blown 11 leads in 2009, which is far and away the worst in the league. Closing duties will fall on either Ryan Madson or Lidge in the playoffs, but neither is likely to provide much comfort. Still, if you look at the results from Lidge and Madson this season against Colorado, you see good things. The two relievers combined to throw seven innings against the Rockies in 2009 and didn't give up an earned run. A lock-down eighth-and-ninth inning team, whatever the order, would do wonders for Philly's repeat hopes.

As a team, the Phillies won four out of six games against Colorado this season. Chase Utley torched Rockies pitching, batting .421 against it, and Jayson Werth drove in eight while blasting two home runs during the season series. And let's not forget the formidable lineup which features speed from Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins and tons of power from Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. The Phillies can score runs, no team in the National League tallied more in 2008. And if they have an off night and can't find ways to light up the scoreboard, the Phillies can pile hurlers on the mound with the best of them.

When Philadelphia failed to make a trade for Roy Halladay as the trade deadline closed in, they were stuck with a consolation prize of sorts, though a very nice one, in Cliff Lee. All Lee did was win his first five appearances and post a 3.39 ERA after the move to Philadelphia, silencing those still pining for Halladay. Starting next to 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels, Lee is part a dynamic duo at the top of the rotation. Things look good after that pair though, a fact reinforced by the toughest decision facing manager Charlie Manuel -- whether to start J.A. Happ, a 12-game winner with a sub-3.00 ERA or Pedro Martinez with all of his experience. When that's the dilemma at hand, you've got good problems.

It's hard to pitch around anyone in this lineup, the pitching staff posted a top-10 ERA this season and the Phillies have buckets of playoff experience -- they can't lose.

Why the Rockies Will Win

Because it's Rocktober, of course.

The Rockies enter the playoffs with as strong a track record as anyone in baseball, if you look only at the Jim Tracy Rockies. They went 74-42 under Tracy, which would have pro-rated to a 103-59 record over the course of a full 162-game schedule. Sure, they had the bad start, but that team is a distant memory. These guys are a group with as much ability and confidence as can be imagined as they head into the playoffs for the second time in three years.

This team seems to have just a little bit of everything. They can hit for power, beat you on the bases, make solid defensive plays or out-pitch you on any given day. They have All-Stars and scrappy utility players. With Troy Tulowitzki, Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Stewart, Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales, the Rockies are in the middle of a youth movement. As the old saying goes, they might just be young and dumb enough to not be intimidated by the defending World Series champs. On the other hand, they are also blessed with solid veteran leadership in Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe.

The offense, because of everything mentioned above, will find ways to score on a Phillies pitching staff which has dealt with inconsistency over the course of the season. They do too many things well to run into a team-wide slump -- even during a small sample of a five-game series. If Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee form the lights-out combination they are capable of being, the fact that Brad Lidge is waiting in the wings is enough to make any lineup salivate once the game gets late. That is, of course, assuming the Rockies pitchers keep the game close by, relatively speaking, shutting down a potent Phillies lineup.

Pitching-wise, Jimenez has grown into a legitimate ace and is ready to step up to the plate. The Phillies haven't seen him this year, which is an advantage for the 25 year-old. Aaron Cook is getting healthy at the right time and just put together a strong eight-inning, one-earned run effort in his final regular season start. Huston Street is also healthy and he teams with Morales to form a scary back-end duo in the bullpen.

On the basis of being good at everything -- while arguably being exceptional at nothing aside from playing together and playing hard -- the Rockies will dethrone the champs in five games.

-- Matt Snyder