Predictability Doomed Hamels in Game 1

In Advanced Scouting, MLB FanHouse's professional talent evaluator breaks down the playoffs from a scouting perspective.

In a matchup of elite lefties, both Clayton Kershaw and Cole Hamels appeared to run into brick walls in Game 1. Kershaw, as dominant as he looked early on, was exposed by a good lineup as an immensely talented, but ultimately inexperienced pitcher. Hamels, on the other hand, took a little different path to his problems in the middle innings.

Out of the gate, Hamels looked amped up. It showed very early with his velocity topping out at 96 mph and sitting around 93-94. However, the location was not there and he was quickly burned by a second inning home run off the bat of James Loney.

While it looks good on the radar gun, pitchers like Hamels do not make their living off of gaudy velocity numbers. Quite often when the velocity is up, the way it was for him in this game, you will see his command suffer.

Thankfully for Philadelphia, his spotty fastball command and early adrenaline appeared to fade away by the middle innings. Settling into a 91-93 mph range with his fastball and spotting his changeup, Hamels suddenly looked like the playoff ace we knew in 2008.

But, as quickly as he seemed to find his groove after a stumble in the second inning, Hamels ran into even bigger trouble in the fifth. And that, in a nutshell, is what seems to be the difference in the Phillies' lefty this year. His mix of pitches and ability to stay unpredictable with the changeup just does not seem to be there like it was last year. The stuff, including the good fastball velocity, does not seem to be an issue. Location of course plays a factor, but it is when Hamels becomes too predictable that he begins to get hit around.

While he has the breaking ball in his arsenal, Hamels makes his living on his fastball-changeup combination. That is not a secret. Using primarily two pitches and having success means you'll need to work even harder to stay unpredictable. Also, to continue to produce those off-balance swings we typically see off the Hamels changeup, the good differential needs to be there. This became an issue in the fifth inning where, at least temporarily, Hamels' fastball appeared to be running out of steam.

After sitting above 92 mph for most of the night, he threw four straight fastballs to Russell Martin, ranging from 87-91 mph. The final pitch of the at-bat, an 81-mph changeup, was lined to left field for a double. Martin was able to keep his hands back just enough, and one has to wonder what the result would have been if Hamels' had his typical changeup differential. Those couple of miles per hour off the fastball can be the difference between a swing-and-miss changeup and one that is yanked down the line. So, a little lull in Hamels' velocity may have opened the door for what became a big inning for the Dodgers.

The bigger issue at hand, however, is the pitch selection and predictability to some of the hitters that followed. In the fifth, Rafael Furcal saw two fastballs and fell behind in the count 0-2. The 0-2 pitch was also a fastball and it was lined into right field. Not only did the pitch get far too much plate considering the count, but not burying a changeup in the dirt is probably doing the hitter a favor. He may be trying to out-think the hitters, who must honor his devastating changeup, but as good as it is, getting beat on a 0-2 fastball over the plate just can't happen.

After surrendering the two-run bomb to Manny Ramirez on a changeup in the fifth, it was clear in the sixth inning that suddenly Hamels was determined not to get beat on his off-speed pitch again. The last man he faced before departing, Ronnie Belliard saw six straight fastballs before singling to left field on the seventh pitch of the at-bat. Now, there is obviously nothing wrong with being aggressive with your fastball, but a pitcher of Hamels' style can not afford to be this predictable. He thrives on changing speeds in unexpected situations and constantly keeping hitters on their front foot. If he has confidence and command of his two best pitches, Hamels keeps hitters and viewers of the game guessing all night. If you see unpredictability, you see a better pitcher.

Spotlight Moment

The Phillies came out on top in Game 1, but the at-bat of the night came in the fifth inning. Although he's proven time and time again this October that he's had issues catching up with the fastball inside, Manny Ramirez managed to see a changeup in a 2-0 count. And, as Manny tends to do when he gets a pitch he's sitting on, he deposited it into the left field seats. We can't be certain that he was sitting on the changeup, but Ramirez is a smart enough hitter to recognize his problems against the fastball and hunt the off-speed pitch.

What has to be questioned in this situation is, after falling behind with two straight changeups, why Hamels would go back to the well a third straight time. Hamels brought a better than usual fastball to the mound on this night, one that had Ramirez tied up earlier in the game, so it has to at least be asked why a fastball wouldn't be mixed in at some point in this count. Of course, some credit also needs to go to Ramirez for sitting on and jumping all over a pitch he was looking for. This is why he's still incredibly dangerous despite what the clear issue he has hitting the good fastball on the hands.

Frankie Piliere spent the last three seasons working as a scout, most recently in the professional scouting department for the Texas Rangers in 2009. He now serves as the National Baseball Analyst here at FanHouse.