Hermida Could Pay Off Big for Red Sox

In Advanced Scouting, MLB FanHouse's professional talent evaluator breaks down offseason moves from a scouting perspective.

It hasn't taken long for the Hot Stove to get heated up as we roll past the World Series. Some key players have already been locked up and some high upside trades have already gone down. What do these moves mean for each club involved and how will the players dealt respond to their new homes? Just as significant, how important will the prospects dealt turn out to be?

From Mark Teahen headed to Chicago, to the Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy swap, to Bobby Abreu's new deal with the Angels, each move had a distinct impact. Perhaps the most interesting of these, however, was Jeremy Hermida being shipped to Boston. For the price of a pair of young lefties, the Red Sox took a gamble that may prove very worthy.

There was a time when Jeremy Hermida was a can't-miss outfielder, considered pretty much unanimously to be one of the top prospects in all of baseball. For the former Marlin, those days were many setbacks ago. But make no mistake, there was good reason he was held in such high regard on his way up through the minor leagues. The raw power potential is still very much there and he has the skills that any scout points to with excitement.

On the other hand, the story of a player with physical skills that doesn't pan out has been retold many a time. So, did Boston get the player who never reaches that high ceiling or one it can help turn the corner?

There's no clear answer here, but it's safe to say that Boston has a good track record with left-handed hitters in recent years. Giving a guy like Hermida something to shoot for with that inviting Green Monster in left field will be fascinating to watch. It could very well put him in a better frame of mind at the plate. If they can get him confident in his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field, he could still blossom into the .300-hitting, 20-homer bat scouts envisioned a few years ago.

Considering his contract, his injury trouble and his failure thus far to reach his potential, Hermida is most definitely a gamble for the Red Sox. That only leaves the issue of the players that Boston sent to Florida in return.

First, there is lefty reliever Hunter Jones. With a fastball hovering around 86-88 mph, Jones is not a guy who figures to ever be a key setup man in a major league bullpen. If he's going to have a career, it's going to have to be against left-handed hitters. He relies heavily on his sweeping breaking ball and has shown he can have some success against tough lefty bats, but all things considered, this isn't a player Boston fans need to be concerned about dealing for a high-upside player like Hermida.

Jose Alvarez, the second and even lesser known of the two lefty arms Boston sent to the Marlins, also does not profile as a savior in this deal for Florida. After scouting him back in spring training, my impression of Alvarez was not an uncommon one. This isn't a pitcher with standout skills or projectability. There are some things to like about the 20-year-old southpaw, who finished the season at advanced Single-A, but he is not going to wow anyone with his raw stuff.

He's a feel pitcher with plus command of his pitches, and that control is going to need to remain for him if he's going to have success at higher levels. His fastball sits at 86-89 mph and he relies heavily on his two average secondary pitches. He has confidence in his changeup and has proved he could locate his 74-77 mph breaking ball against lefties.

The main concern with Alvarez is his over-aggressiveness in the zone. He gets too much plate when he's ahead in the count for a pitcher with less-than-electric stuff. Overall, there is enough there for him to have a role in a big-league bullpen, but given his smallish frame and current stuff there isn't a lot of upside.

If there is gamble for Boston in picking up Jeremy Hermida, it is not because it gave up high upside talent to get him. Clearly this was about dumping salary from the Marlins' perspective, and that is the positive they must take from this, because the talent they received doesn't come close to equaling Hermida's upside.

Quick Hits

• We've yet to see how this year's market will take shape, but Bobby Abreu will not be left hanging like he was last year as it evaporated before his eyes. The pairing of him and the Angels is a perfect one, as his patient approach brings a balance to their aggressive lineup. With potential losses of key players elsewhere on its roster looming, this was a big move for Los Angeles. You know what Abreu will give you going into a season, and the Angels can now plan around him when constructing their 2010 lineup.

• Carlos Gomez was one of the centerpieces of the Johan Santana trade, but things just never got off the ground for him in Minnesota. It was evident at times that both his attitude and careless play did not mesh with the hard-nosed, mistake-free brand baseball the Twins like to play. In that regard, you have to credit the Twins for being unafraid of dispatching a player for whom they clearly had high hopes. From a Brewers perspective, it can not hurt to give a player with physical gifts like Gomez a fresh start. Despite his struggles, there is still tremendous upside there. Of course, if J.J. Hardy can return to his peak offensive form, we might look at the Twins' side of the deal as one of the steals of the offseason.

• He's never had overwhelming numbers, but from a scout's perspective there are a number of reasons Mark Teahen could continue to develop offensively. He's shown some of his best power to the opposite field, but it would be nice to see him learn to spin on the good fastball inside. That is about the only thing that's prevented him from taking off at the plate, and that's how opposing pitching will continue to try to get him out. The White Sox obviously hope he puts it all together with them.

Frankie Piliere spent the last three seasons working as a scout, most recently in the professional scouting department for the Texas Rangers in 2009. He now serves as the National Baseball Analyst here at FanHouse.