CHICAGO -- On a day this week when the stock market had one of the encouraging spikes investors have enjoyed more frequently over the past few months, Kenny Williams let out a sarcastic cheer for what it meant to baseball.
"Let's go, let's party," he said. "We've got cash again."
Then, the White Sox general manager quickly returned to reality, at least the version of reality that he and his colleagues have been describing this week at the GM Meetings.
"I don't think it works that way," he said. "We might need to see six months of recovery before we buy into that. We need an advertiser or a sponsor or two to come back to us."
Baseball teams have cried poverty before, but last winter turned out to be, financially, one of the coldest in recent years. Dozens of players waited until just a week or two before spring training, eventually settling for cut-rate deals. Although there are indications that the economy is improving, it remains to be seen what type of winter this will be in terms of spending.
"I honestly have no idea," Braves GM Frank Wren said. "Every market has its own life it takes on once we get a little deeper into the winter. I don't know that any of us know."
"We heard a lot last year about the impending doom of the economics of baseball. ... Even in an economy where many many businesses are struggling, ... our industry has been able to keep the revenues at record levels."
-- Scott Boras While owners and GMs may call for fiscal restraint, agents will, as usual, say that it's all a smokescreen intended to help the teams keep their cash out of the hands of their clients.
"We heard a lot last year about the impending doom of the economics of baseball," agent Scott Boras said. "We had another record year this year and the economy is better. ... Even in an economy where many many businesses are struggling, particularly in the last year, our industry has been able to keep the revenues at record levels."
Attendance actually dropped 6.5 percent from last year, which was the biggest decline since 1952. That said, the raw number of fans to come to games -- more than 75 million -- was still the fourth-highest in history.
Everything is relative, from the money clubs are making to the money players are making.
"When you are talking free agency with these guys, the question isn't 'Are you going to be rich?', the question is 'How rich do you want to be?'" Williams said. "No matter the real economics of the world, in a lot of ways this is Fantasy Land. None of these guys are going to starve."
Boras countered by saying that any club that considers itself to be a small- or middle-market also should have some perspective.
"I don't know what a mid-market franchise is," he said. "That's like a mid-sized aircraft carrier. They all have the potential to have an economic bomb. If you are drawing 3.3 million fans and averaging $50 a fan. ... I just don't know that mid-market team."
Free agents may be the first to feel the economic crunch, particularly since this market has few marquee players and dozens who have question marks because of their age or performance. Traditionally, the players hurt most when the money dries up are the ones in the middle. Now the middle expands all the way up to the second tier of free agents and all the way down to arbitration-eligible players.
In past years it was easy to move players like that, because most any team could afford a $3-to-$5 million player, but these days, not so much.
"All of the sudden, there is a risk-reward of 'Am I going to go after the second-tier free agent?'" Giants GM Brian Sabean said. "There might be some risk dollar wise, but I'm not sure of the reward vs. a guy that's coming in my system or the guy that a year from now we're going to need to get anyway."
A raft of players may wind up creating a new pool of free agents after Dec. 12, the deadline to tender contracts to those that are eligible for arbitration.
Another recent, economically based, change in baseball's offseason is the reluctance of teams to give up draft picks for free agents. A team that signs a Type-A free agent has to surrender a high draft pick as compensation. With teams lusting after all the cheap players they can find, those draft picks are valued more than they were five years ago.
"There are guys out there I would certainly have interest in if they weren't Type-A's," Williams said.
It is certainly not a recent development to have baseball decisions impacted by money, but there is no doubt that dollars have become more of a driving force in the past couple years.
"I don't think we're out of the woods yet with sports getting slapped in the face of reality," Williams said. "That's just my own personal opinion. It's not just fun and games any more. It's got to be a business. You have to run it as it is supposed to be, as a business."
Here are five other key questions to watch as this offseason unfolds:
Where will the big free agents land?
Jason Bay, Chone Figgins, Matt Holliday and John Lackey are the only premium players on the market. The Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Angels, four of baseball's big spenders, each are expected to be in on the bidding for at least a couple of those players, so they should end up getting nice contracts.
Look for Holliday to be the last of the bunch to sign, since he's represented by Boras. He probably won't go anywhere until he sees what Bay gets.
Which big names will be traded?
The biggest name on the trade block this winter is Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays shopped him in all-too-public fashion over the summer, but asked for so much in return that they didn't make a deal. The failure to move Halladay may have contributed to GM J.P. Ricciardi's demise in Toronto. Now Alex Anthopolous is running the Blue Jays, and he has not tipped his hand about what the Jays plan to do with Halladay, but he has made it clear he'll listen to anything.Dan Uggla is another premium player who is almost certain to be traded. The Marlins are always looking to trim payroll and they have Rookie of the Year candidate Chris Coglan ready to move to second.
After that, the next biggest players to watch are Adrian Gonzalez and Felix Hernandez. Both are so good and so cheap that their current teams can keep them. But those current teams are not contenders, so they may also use them for rebuilding, looking for a Mark Teixeira-like four- or five-for-one deal.
Will the Dodgers ownership saga affect the baseball team?
The ugly divorce proceedings between Frank and Jamie McCourt have so far been a story more fitting for TMZ than FanHouse. However, if the McCourts end up having to sell the team in order to liquidate their assets for a split, it could have a dramatic impact on how the Dodgers do business. The model everyone in Los Angeles fears is what happened to the Padres when John Moores got divorced.
For now, though, it's too early in the process to know if the Dodgers will go the same route. GM Ned Colletti said he's conducting business as usual.
Which of the aging star players will be back and which ones will retire?
This past season saw what may have been the end of a lot of great careers, including Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Andy Pettitte, Pudge Rodriguez, John Smoltz and Omar Vizquel. Ken Griffey Jr. would have been on this list, but he re-signed with Seattle on Wednesday.
Of that group, Martinez seems to be the most likely to come back because of what he showed in the second half and the postseason with the Phillies. He also said he wishes to return.
Pettitte certainly performed well enough to warrant another contract, but after winning another ring, he may prefer to stay home.Who will sign the biggest names on the international market?
Aroldis Chapman is a 21-year-old Cuban left-hander who throws up to 100 mph. Although he's got potential, he is considered very raw and probably won't be able to help a big-league team this year.
Ryota Igarashi is a polished veteran of the NPB, Japan's major league. A 30-year-old right-hander, he has been a setup man and closer in Japan. He'd most likely be considered a late-inning reliever in the majors.
