Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2010. The Giants made a nice improvement from 72 victories in 2008 to 88 in 2009, achieved pretty much because of an outstanding pitching staff. The Giants aren't likely to pitch better in 2010 than they did in 2009 -- their 3.55 ERA ranked second in the majors -- so if they are to take the next step, they'll have to find a way to score more runs.
The bad news is, outside of Pablo Sandoval, they don't have a single player on their roster who is a safe bet to perform at an above-average level next year. The good news is that means the Giants have a lot of flexibility in where they can put whatever players they find to upgrade. They seem locked in to Freddy Sanchez at second and, because of their contracts, Edgar Renteria at short and Aaron Rowand in center. Sandoval can play first or third. Other than that, the lineup is a blank slate that GM Brian Sabean can spend the winter completing.
Who Might Leave
Ryan Garko, 1B; Randy Johnson, LHP; Bengie Molina, C; Brad Penny, RHP; Juan Uribe, IF; Randy Winn, OF.
Shopping List
Plain and simple, the Giants need bats. The two big bats on the free agent market, Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, would both fit the Giants lineup. They play left field, which has been a black hole since You Know Who
Otherwise, you can figure they'll sniff around the second-tier free-agent market for guys who can play any corner. Players like Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Hank Blalock, Jermaine Dye, Austin Kearns and Xavier Nady might be decent fits. It's also possible they'd look into a reclamation project like Garrett Atkins.
The Giants will probably also go after some mid-level starting pitcher -- a Jon Garland type -- because after Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, their starters (Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito) are inconsistent, high-pitch-count guys.
They'll also need to find some sort of stopgap catcher (a Gregg Zaun-type) to hold down the position until Buster Posey is ready, probably around midseason. Money Matters
The big story to watch this winter will be Lincecum. He's won two Cy Youngs all before his first year being arbitration-eligible. If he simply goes to arbitration, his salary is likely to jump from $650,000 to at least $8 million, and perhaps as much as $10 million. The Giants would probably like to get him signed to a multi-year deal, but don't expect them to start those negotiations until they see what Lincecum's agent asks for in a one-year deal. Closer Brian Wilson is also due for a big arbitration bump, from $480,000 to at least $3 million. He's another multi-year candidate, but it's risky to make that kind of commitment to a reliever.
The Giants are stuck with a few bad contracts (Zito at $18.5 million, Rowand at $12 million and Renteria at $9 million), but they did lose Winn ($9.6 million), Johnson ($8 million) and Molina ($6.5 million).
Offseason Goals
The Giants need to do whatever is necessary to take the next step in 2010. They were close last year, and their pitching is still in place to make them a dangerous team in the playoffs, if they can only score enough runs to get there. They may not need to spend on premium offensive players. If they can simply make subtle upgrades at a few positions, which shouldn't be hard, they could easily jump from the bottom to the middle in offense, which may be enough to get them over the hump.
