The Marlins may not give staff ace Josh Johnson the long-term deal he desires, but that doesn't mean he's leaving South Florida, at least not imminently.Marlins general manager Michael Hill stated emphatically over the weekend that Johnson would begin the 2010 season with Florida.
Appearing as a guest on Marlins flagship station 790 The Ticket's "Hot Stove Show" on Saturday, Hill was asked if Johnson would be with the team next season.
"Yes, I can say with certainty, yes," Hill said. ...
Matt Sosnick, the pitcher's agent, said recently both sides couldn't agree on the years or dollars. Johnson was seeking a four-year deal, with the Marlins offering three years with a club option.Though the Marlins are perennial penny-pinchers and Johnson is entering his second year of arbitration, there really isn't much reason for the club to seriously consider dealing him right now, unless, of course, they are blown away by an offer.
"It's unfortunate that it did get out there, because that's not how we operate," Hill said. "But from the standpoint of Josh's future, and how he fits, and how attractive he looks, no matter what his situation is, he's a good player, and a good pitcher. I don't ever think there would be a shortage of teams that would want to have him on their team, and we're very fortunate to have him as a member of the Marlins."
Where would an offer like that have to begin, in terms of talent? Probably somewhere around the Nov. 2005 Josh Beckett deal, although the Marlins could probably ask for even more when you consider that:
• Johnson has a lower ERA (3.40 to 3.46) than Beckett did at this point in his career
• Beckett made nearly as much in his final year with the Marlins as Johnson has made during his entire career.
• Florida was in dire need of salary relief after the 2005 season, a year in which it spent, by its standards, an astronomical $60.4 million on the club. Third baseman Mike Lowell, a future World Series MVP, was thrown into the Beckett deal essentially as a salary dump, a factor that certainly impacted the price Boston had to pay in the deal (in other words, the more salary you take on, the less talent you have send). By contrast, these Marlins are looking to cut payroll, but not dramatically, and have only a few higher-priced veterans with whom they are entangled. In addition to Lowell, the '05 Marlins also had Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, Juan Pierre, Juan Encarnacion and A.J. Burnett, and all were jettisoned before Opening Day in 2006.
• And finally, Hanley Ramirez, one of the centerpieces of the deal, was hardly a sure thing at the time of the trade after an uninspiring season at Double-A. He would, of course, blossom into a superstar almost immediately upon arrival in the major leagues, but he wasn't exactly tearing his way through the minor leagues at the time.
Constructing hypothetical offers for Johnson is completely moot if the Marlins are unwilling to deal him now. Coming off of an 87-win season, bringing back much of the same team and possessing a deep and rich farm system, Florida has every reason to think it can contend in 2010.
It'll need Johnson to turn those idle winter thoughts into a reality.
