MLB FanHouse

Potential Defection of Yusei Kikuchi Again Calls Into Question Posting System

Pat Lackey — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:53:00 EST

Filed under: Prospects, International Baseball

With the news this week that top Japanese prospect Yusei Kikuchi is contemplating jumping straight from a Japanese high school to American professional baseball, the relationship between Japanese baseball and the major leagues continues to grow complicated. Like Junichi Tazawa last year, Kikuchi is expected to be the first pick in this year's Nippon Pro Baseball (NPB) draft and will probably command a seven-figure bonus in the States.

Like his predecessor, though, Kikuchi is worried about the restrictive transfer agreement between NPB and Major League Baseball hindering his ability to have a full career in America.

In Japan, players are drafted right into NPB after high school, where they remain property of their teams for nine years before declaring free agency. The only way to move to an American team before that deadline is for the player's team to "post" them, allowing American clubs to bid on the rights to negotiate with them.

The posting system was mainly created in response to the early defections of Hideo Nomo, Alfonso Soriano, and Hideki Irabu to America in the late 1990s. Since its institution in 1999, 10 players have been successfully posted to American teams, including Ichiro, Daisuke Matzusaka, and Akinori Iwamura.

Most Japanese players that come to the States choose to wait for their free agency, but in doing so sacrifice a large part of their career (and potential earnings). Think Hideki Matsui here, who came to the U.S. at the age of 29, and who's been a solid, above-average performer for the Yankees over his seven-year U.S. career after being a superstar in Japan.

What makes the choice by Tazawa (and the potential choice by Kikuchi) to bypass Japan entirely different is that they stand to make more money early in their career by staying with NPB. The top draft bonus in Japan is capped at about $1.1 million and first-year salary is about $160,000, but for the nine years of club control the players renegotiate their deals each season and their salaries can escalate into seven figures (American) by their second season, if their performance merits it.

If Kikuchi signs for a bonus in the $1-2 million region and then spends two or three years in the minors, he'd still be subject to major league team control for the first three years of his big-league career, meaning that he might not make the sort of money that a pitcher like Yu Darvish makes right now in Japan until he's been in the U.S. for four or five years.

The biggest problem is the posting system. Posting is an expensive process for American teams that strongly limits where Japanese players may end up, placing the decision entirely out of their hands. On the other hand, granting free agency to players that skip the NPB draft entirely actually gives them an advantage over American prospects of the same age, because they're freely available on the open market.

NPB wants to create hurdles for its star players to move to MLB, to keep their league relevant (in the wake of Tazawa's defection, they instituted a three-year ban for any player that skips the NPB draft for America), but the system isn't close to ideal.

Where this goes from here may rely entirely on how Tazawa and Kikuchi (if he skips the draft) fare in America. So far, Japanese players have been a mixed bag in America. For every Ichiro Suzuki, there's a Kazuo Matsui. The two biggest fees of all-time were paid to Daisuke Matsuzaka, who's had varied success for the Red Sox, and Kei Igawa, a disaster for the Yankees. But how will a talented Japanese pitcher fare after being groomed in the American minor leagues instead of NPB? If a few players find success here, a larger number may try to follow in their footsteps.

If that happens, NPB may be forced to revisit the posting agreement; keeping players like Kikuchi and Tazawa around for two or three years in the domestic league is better than not having them at all, one would think. It also may create the unwanted impression that NPB is simply a de facto farm league for Major League Baseball, but if this sort of defection becomes more regular, something will have to change.

I'm not sure anything is going to change on this front any time soon, but a high-profile player moving in the opposite direction may prompt action. Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker (who, along with his co-blogger Ryo Shinkawa, was a huge source of information on the Japanese draft and contracts for this piece) says that while an undrafted American would not be subject to the NPB draft, he would likely be subject to the nine-year rule, unless something different was agreed to in his contract.

Imagine this: the Nationals take Bryce Harper with the top overall pick in next June's draft, but can't sign him. Instead of playing in an independent league and re-entering the draft, Harper jumps to Japan, knowing he'll need a year or two of minor-league seasoning in America anyway. In his contract is an agreement that once he turns, say, 20, his Japanese team will agree to post him back to America, bringing in a huge sum of money for the team that signs him (if he performs), and getting Harper around the American draft. So Harper signs an NPB contract and bonus, gets paid for a few years of Japanese baseball, then comes back to America to a huge contract.

Potential Defection of Yusei Kikuchi Again Calls Into Question Posting System originally appeared on MLB FanHouse on Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:53:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Yusei Kikuchi Could Bypass NPB Draft For American Baseball

Pat Lackey — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:45:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Biz, Prospects, International Baseball

Every year, the relationship between American baseball and Japanese baseball gets a little more complicated. Reports Tuesday indicate that Yusei Kikuchi, a high school pitcher expected to be the first player picked in Nippon Professional Baseball's amateur draft late next month, is contemplating skipping the draft in favor of coming to America.

That may not seem like a big deal, but under Major League Baseball's current rules, Kikuchi would not be subject to the MLB Draft and instead be declared a free agent, free to sign with any American team he wants. In light of Junichi Tazawa making a similar jump last year, skipping the NPB draft for America now carries a three-year ban, but Kikuchi would be the second top prospect in two years to make the leap, should he choose to do so.

I contacted Patrick Newman and Ryo Shinkawa, the authors of NPB Tracker, to ask about Kikuchi's situation.

Both agreed that because of age (Kikuchi is 18, Tazawa was 22 when he signed) Kikuchi is considered a much rawer prospect than Tazawa was last year and might not command contract on par with the three-year, $3.3 million deal he received from Boston, but that he still might command a seven-figure contract.

Given time spent in the minors, that may not represent more money than he'd make if he were to stay in Japan, though it's impossible to put a dollar figure on getting into the MLB system at the age of 18 without having to be posted or waiting to be granted free agency (which comes nine years after being drafted in Japan).

The above video is taken from Kikuchi's appearance in a high school tournament in July. His fastball clocks in anywhere between 85 and 92 mph and he seems to spot it nicely with a big, slow curve that clocks in the low 70s. He even mixes in an eephus pitch for good measure.

It's hard to really judge his talent with free-swinging high school kids batting against him, but I think a lefty with the ability to hit 90-plus on the radar gun regularly (he does at least three or four times in the inning shown above) and a breaking pitch would make him a pretty good prospect if he were an American high schooler.

It's not hard to see why an American team would be interested in signing him and adding him to their system, even with his young age.

Yusei Kikuchi Could Bypass NPB Draft For American Baseball originally appeared on MLB FanHouse on Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Is Yu Darvish the Next Dice-K?

Josh Alper — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 12:10:00 EST

Filed under: Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, MLB Rumors, International Baseball

There aren't any Japanese players heading to the U.S. via the posting system this offseason. Kosuke Fukudome joined the Cubs as a conventional free agent and Hiroki Kuroda joined the Dodgers in the same fashion, but what about next year? There could be a frenzied bidding war for 20-year old phenom Yu Darvish brewing. Via East Windup Chronicle:

The Yu Darvish to MLB rumors may have just officially kicked off right along with the new year. A Sports Hankook (Korea) report, relying on a Japanese source (Sports Nikkan), says that the Yankees plan to nab Darvish following the 2008 season.

The report goes on to say that the Dodgers, Mets and Cubs have also made "love calls" to Darvish and that the floor of negotiations is something along the lines of what Daisuke Matsuzaka was able to command during his posting extravaganza in 2006.

If Darvish was already in the U.S. his hype would be on the same level of Phil Hughes and Clay Buchholz. He posted a 1.82 ERA with 210 strikeouts in 207 2/3 innings last season for the Nippon Ham Fighters and won the Pacific League MVP. That's more than Matsuzaka was doing at that age and Darvish just became the youngest player to sign a 200 million yen contract (about $2 million) in Japanese history.

Would Nippon post Darvish at such a young age? Under Japanese rules they've got him for seven more years before he's a free agent and it would be a major blow to the franchise to sell off their best and most marketable player. If he has another good season in '08 and/or makes a big impact at the Olympics, though, the price he'd command could be too much to pass up. Matsuzaka netted $51 million and, if that's the floor, imagine what the ceiling could be in a Darvish posting.

Darvish has indicated that he's in no hurry to come to the U.S., but money has a way of changing people's minds. There's so many variables that it's hard to predict how this will play out. Darvish will be followed closely by major league scouts, though, and, if he continues to dominate, will be the subject of much speculation here and abroad.

(H/T Baseball Musings)

Is Yu Darvish the Next Dice-K? originally appeared on MLB FanHouse on Wed, 02 Jan 2008 12:10:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Royals Sign Yasuhiko Yabuta, Will Aim Higher

Mullet — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 00:30:00 EST

Filed under: Royals, AL Central, Kansas City, International Baseball

After weeks of rumors, the Royals finally made it official and signed reliever Yasuhiko Yabuta away from the Chibe Lotte Marines.

"Yasuhiko has been one of the best relievers in Japan the last several years," general manager Dayton Moore said. "He will be an important veteran arm that will help add stability to the back end of our bullpen."

Yabuta, 34, is a 6-foot-2, 185-pound right-hander who spent the last 12 seasons pitching for the Chibe Lotte Marines in Japan's Pacific League. He was 4-6 last season with a 2.73 ERA and a career-high 38 holds in 58 appearances.

It doesn't hurt the Royals that Yabuta's new manager, Trey Hillman, has an understanding of the Japanese game and Japanese league players. Yabuta should not only fit right in, but thrive under Hillman. And now that the deal is finally done, the Royals hope to bring another pitcher from the far east to the land of good barbecue.

The Royals would prefer to solve their need for a starting pitcher by adding another Japanese veteran: Hiroki Kuroda, who is 103-89 with a 3.69 ERA over the last 11 seasons with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan's Central League. Competition will be fierce, and Kuroda, 32, has already expressed a preference for playing on the West Coast. That seems to position the Mariners and Dodgers as favorites, but the Diamondbacks, Mets and Cubs have also expressed interest. Kuroda discussed the possibilities Wednesday in a meeting with his agent, Steve Hilliard, in Hiroshima.

"Right now, I haven't decided anything," Kuroda told a Japanese newspaper. "Teams are on a line. Steve explained a lot to me, including (the) environment I am concerned about. I'll take time to think about my future."

The bidding on Kuroda is expected to start at $40 million over four years. Other possibilities for the Royals if he signs elsewhere: Carlos Silva, Matt Clement, Jason Jennings and Kris Benson.

"What I'd say about all of that," Moore said, "is we're going to try to sign the very best talent available."

How refreshing it must be for Royals fans to hear that from Moore. Unfortunately, if the signing the best talent available means Silva, Clement, Jennings, or Benson, then I wonder if it's Kuroda or bust for Kansas City.

I guess if all else fails, they could always put out an ad for a starting pitcher.

Royals Sign Yasuhiko Yabuta, Will Aim Higher originally appeared on MLB FanHouse on Thu, 29 Nov 2007 00:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Kosuke Fukudome is Coming to America

Mullet — Mon, 12 Nov 2007 06:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Rumors, International Baseball, MLB Biz

The wild card in the 2008 Free Agent Market has now officially joined the free agent market. Kosuke Fukudome, the right fielder from the Chunichi Dragons who's been compared to Ichiro Suzuki, has declared his intentions to come to the Western Hemisphere and play some ball, declaring himself a free agent.

"I'd like to see what kind of interest I get," Fukudome said at a news conference. "We'll see where this goes."

Fukudome, 30, is regarded as one of the best outfielders in Japanese professional baseball. He was a key member of the Japan team that won the inaugural World Baseball Classic in March 2006.

He had surgery on his right elbow in August and sat out the Japan Series, but has 192 homers and a .305 batting average over nine seasons with the Dragons, who won their first title in 53 years on Nov. 2.

There's no way to tell how his game is going to translate from the Chunichi Dragons to the Major Leagues. For every Ichiro or Hideki Matsui, there's a Norihiro Nakamura or a Saturo Komiyama. Don't know who they are? That's the point. Choice of team is also important ... look how much better Kaz Matsui's career became after leaving New York. Then there's that little problem of that right elbow injury. That plus the fact that he will be on the other side of 30 could trump any question about his ability to step up to the majors from Japan. If they're comparing him to Ichiro, (and you might too after watching Fukudome's skills) that shouldn't be a question anyway.

Let the bidding begin!

Previously on FanHouse:
Welcome to the Fukudome!

Kosuke Fukudome is Coming to America originally appeared on MLB FanHouse on Mon, 12 Nov 2007 06:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Clemens Might Pitch in 2008 ... for Team USA

Matt Watson — Fri, 09 Nov 2007 15:32:00 EST

Filed under: Houston, New York, Yankees, Astros, AL East, NL Central, MLB Rumors, International Baseball, The Word

So Roger Clemens has "retired" yet again, but that doesn't mean that he's done playing baseball. No, I'm not talking about yet another comeback with the Yankees or Astros, but rather Team USA in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. From MLB.com (via Fark):

Clemens, if healthy, would consider pitching for Team USA in the baseball tournament during the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, China, one of his agents told MLB.com on Thursday night in response to an e-mail question.

"I think, if things fell into place and he felt good, he would be interested," said agent Randy Hendricks about the 45-year-old Clemens, who has won 354 Major League games and pitched part of the 2007 season for the Yankees. "He loves the idea of representing his country."

Of course, he also loves the idea of making millions of dollars each time he starts a game, so he might be turned off once he realizes there's no compensation. (What, me, cynical?) If he actually goes through with it, though, it'd be a nice way to cap off his career. But if the World Baseball Championship a couple of years ago proved anything it's that winning a gold medal would hardly be a cakewalk -- and it'll be even tougher in the Olympics where players on an MLB 25-man roster aren't eligible to participate. Team USA won Olympic gold in 2000 in Sydney but failed to even make the 2004 games in Athens when they lost to Mexico in a qualifying round.

Previously on FanHouse:
Clemens to the Astros ... as a Consultant?

Clemens Might Pitch in 2008 ... for Team USA originally appeared on MLB FanHouse on Fri, 09 Nov 2007 15:32:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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International Pastime: Felix Jose Goes Berserk

Mullet — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 16:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Video, International Baseball

International Pastime will look at baseball's influence outside the U.S.

You may have forgotten that Felix Jose existed. I sure as heck did. But the Korean Baseball Blog points us to a 1999 playoff series between the Lotte Giants (Jose's team) and the Samsung Lions. The above video, from Game 7 of their series, featured Jose, a former Athletic, Cardinal, and Royal, hitting a home run and being pelted with various objects while trotting around the bases. Jose, in a completely calm, cool, and mature manner, proceeded to hurl his bat into the stands. Then, he used another bat to try to bust through a protective fence and knock a fan into next week.

And you thought the Roger Clemens/Mike Piazza incident was bad.

Jose almost won the triple crown that year in the KBO and that earned him another shot at the majors. He played a bit for the Yankees in 2000, and also had cups of coffee with Arizona in '02 and '03 on the strength of his 1999 season. Jose, believe it or not, was still playing baseball in July of 2007 in the Atlantic League ... after being suspended 50 games from the Mexican league for steroid use, of course.

Arm Bash: Korean Baseball Blog

International Pastime: Felix Jose Goes Berserk originally appeared on MLB FanHouse on Thu, 11 Oct 2007 16:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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