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Eye Toward October: Sept. 4


With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.


- Wild, Wild West: The contenders in the NL West might not have gaudy records -- only the Diamondbacks sit above .500 entering play Thursday -- but that doesn't mean the race won't be plenty entertaining. Think about the last couple of days.

Tuesday Dodgers phenom Clayton Kershaw and prized acquisition Manny Ramirez powered Los Angeles to within 1 1/2 games of first-place Diamondbacks. Wednesday Arizona's own trade catch Adam Dunn gave the D'backs a walk-off win and some breathing room ahead of their final series with the rival Dodgers.

All the while, the Rockies, the darlings of last year's postseason, are lurking. Colorado is 17-14 since the beginning of August, and lest you think it isn't a real factor well back of Los Angeles and Arizona, the Rockies will play both clubs a combined nine times in the coming weeks.

The beauty of a protracted pennant race, especially one with three teams battling for a lone playoff spot, is that it's bound to be exciting even if the teams aren't great, or even very good.

Adam Dunn Helps an Offense? What?

Bloggers everywhere have been saying it for years. Adam Dunn is a great offensive baseball player. It's not that hard to figure out. He walks a lot (leads the majors with 91) and drops mammoth bombs (NL-leading 34 jacks, not to mention the tape measure shots that routinely hit the top few rows in Cincy's RF stands). Walks, good. Home runs, good. Add it up and you get an OPS machine.

Of course, the old-schoolers in the MSM and fans that can't figure out how to hook up to the internet still only look at that archaic measure of a player. You know, the dreaded batting average. As a result, Dunn has been maligned. He was booed constantly by the hundreds -- and I may be a bit liberal with that estimate -- of fans in the crowd at Great American Ballpark, and torn to shreds on the lame WLW call-in shows (Reds post-game).

It always killed me and actually turned me into an Dunn fan, despite my allegiance to a divisional foe that he pounds every chance he gets.

Now he's been in Arizona for a week and a half, and he's actually getting love from the locals.

Maybe part of it was leaving Dusty Baker's "don't clog the bases" mantra -- though in fairness, Dusty's only been there for this season -- and joining someone who respects Dunn's game:

FanHouse MLB Chat at 3PM ET



The dog days of August are really getting to the Tampa Bay Rays. In addition to losing Evan Longoria, they've found out that they'll probably be without star Carl Crawford for the rest of the regular season with a torn finger tendon. So here's the question: Will this derail the Rays magical run to the playoffs ... especially with the Red Sox having acquired Paul Byrd for the express purpose of not blowing 10-run first inning leads?

Luckily, we have AOL's own baseball editor Andrew Johnson back for another live MLB chat, where we can discuss your Tampa Bay Rays, Byrd, Adam Dunn, the Mets' lousy bullpen, or whatever you'd like in the world of baseball. So join us at 3PM eastern for a chatting good time!

Bronson Arroyo Is Fairly Certain the World Revolves Around Himself

Six weeks ago, Bronson Arroyo was telling anyone that would listen that if the Reds were really thinking about trading him, his giant contract, and his diminishing skills that they were doomed to failure forever. Today, reporters in Cincy went to get his opinion on the Adam Dunn trade. Kind of surprisingly, he's not upset. Unsurprisingly, the reason why has to do with himself:

"A little bit because it came after the deadline. But he was going to be moved no matter what. I don't know if he told (the media) but he made it was no secret to us that he was looking for $100 to $120 million contract. I don't think this franchise is going to give out that kind of contract."

Arroyo said he is not, however, worried about the direction of the club.

"As long as they keep the pitching staff in tact, I think we'll be OK because I think Dusty (Baker) has enough pull to get them to go out and sign some hitters. If we had a real young manager, I'd be worried."

Let's get this straight, Arroyo was convinced that getting rid of his awful 2-year/$25 million extension would be a sign of doom for the Reds, but trading one of the best power hitters in the major leagues is OK because he wanted too much money. And it's OK partially because Dusty Baker has enough pull to go out and "sign some hitters," but mostly because "they keep the pitching staff intact." As in, they didn't trade him, his 23 homers allowed, his 5.44 ERA, and his 1.51 WHIP.

Also, $120 million for Adam Dunn? Does anyone actually believe that?

D'backs Steal Adam Dunn from Reds

Adam DunnThe D'backs pulled off a stunner of a waiver trade today by grabbing Adam Dunn from the Reds in exchange for minor league pitcher Dallas Buck and two other prospects to be named later. Dunn is eligible to become a free agent in just a few months, but with Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers just 1 1/2 games behind the D'backs, this is a huge coup for the reigning division champs.

Dunn hasn't been hitting all that much over the past few weeks (nor has he been drawing quite as many walks as usual), but he still swings one of the biggest bats in the game and will instantly force pitchers to change their approach against the middle of Arizona's lineup. And who knows, maybe going from a team nearly 20 games out of first to a division leader will be all he needs to snap himself out of his recent slump.

As for the Reds, well, this move doesn't make that much sense. Buck is a former third-round pick, who made his name helping Oregon State win an NCAA title in 2006, but after undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer, he's yet to pitch above Double-A.

Rumor Mill Roundup: July 31

With the trade deadline right around the corner, our MLB editor brings you the top five rumors every day until July 31.

- The Red Sox, Marlins and Pirates are indeed working on a three-way deal that would send Manny Ramirez to South Florida, Jeremy Hermida and prospects to Pittsburgh and Jason Bay (and possibly reliever John Grabow) to Boston. The trade is still a long way from being completed, however, with the teams expected to haggle right up to the deadline on the prospects heading to the Pirates. The deal is fragile because it involves three teams and prospects from both Florida and Boston, so it could go right down to the wire, and there's always a chance the deal collapses.

But there is also a different feeling in Boston this time around with Ramirez, much like the feeling in 2004 when GM Theo Epstein swallowed hard and got rid of the beloved Nomar Garciaparra. If the three-way deal with the Pirates collapses, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Red Sox would then deal directly with the Marlins. And remember this: while the Red Sox would love to have Manny Ramirez in their lineup in October, it won't be as difficult as you'd think to replace his production over the final two months of the season because he is so poor defensively.

- GM Kenny Williams has already added future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. to the White Sox's roster, but he might not be done. With Scott Linebrink on the DL and closer Bobby Jenks just off of it, Chicago is looking for bullpen depth. Williams and the White Sox have been connected with Oakland closer Huston Street for a few weeks now, and there are indications from the Windy City that he'll make a final push to acquire him before the 4PM ET deadline. Eamonn Brennan has already covered the Nick Swisher-Street swap speculation already at FanHouse and correctly assumes that a deal is unlikely.

Adam Dunn: 'The Man Without a Rumor'

For whatever reason, Adam Dunn's reputation in many Major League front offices doesn't match his productivity. He's about to have his fifth straight season with 40 or more home runs and his on-base percentage usually hovers around just under .400, making him, you know, very good at hitting the baseball. He's a beast, but most don't seem to get that.

The latest indication of this disparity between talent and reputation: The New Jersey Star-Ledger's Dan Graziano calls Dunn the "man without a rumor":
Dunn is the man without a rumor. The Reds would deal him, but none of the teams out there looking for outfield help seem to be interested, and it's one of the more confounding aspects of this year's deadline. [...] But nobody's perfect, and there are a lot of players drawing interest on the market who don't put up 40 home runs and a .380 on-base percentage every year. Why can't Dunn get a look? Wouldn't he look pretty nice in left field at Shea?
The answer is, yes, he would, but he would look pretty nice in left field anywhere. Dunn is notorious for killing the ball in Wrigley; a Cubs lineup with Dunn in left and offseason signing Kosuke Fukudome to center is a lineup that gives me the shakes. In a good way.

It seems as if interest in Dunn has piqued slightly: SI.com's Jon Heyman reports this afternoon that a couple of teams have inquired, but nothing further has developed. So maybe Dunn will get traded. Or maybe the Reds, against their will, will be sitting on one of the more underrated hitters of his generation for yet another year. At this point, that outcome wouldn't even be a surprise.

Rumor Mill Roundup: July 26

With the trade deadline right around the corner, our MLB editor brings you the top five rumors every day until July 31.

- The Mets are continuing to pursue a corner outfielder, but with Pittsburgh's trade of Xavier Nady and Cleveland's trade of Casey Blake, the list of potential additions has dwindled. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are still out there, but New York simply doesn't have the chips to acquire an All-Star caliber bat. Seattle's Raul Ibanez is the one name remaining that the Mets have been linked to and is likely in the team's price range.


GM Omar Minaya probably can't afford to hone in on one target, though, so it's likely he'll make calls over the next few days to gauge what the Padres would want in return for Brian Giles and perhaps what the Reds would want in return for Adam Dunn or Ken Griffey Jr. The Mets are on a hot streak, but the team still has flaws -- flaws that can be taken care of in the next few days.

- Manny Ramirez was a very late scratch for Friday night's game against the Yankees, which the Red Sox lost 1-0, and the Boston Globe's Dan Shaugnessy is wondering if this is the final straw for the slugger in Boston. "Manny Being Manny" is a mantra that has come to mean many different things over the years, and part of it are these little dramas, which usually come to nothing. But the Red Sox have an option on Ramirez for next year, one they aren't even certain they will pick up, so perhaps this time it really is THE time to explore finding Ramirez's replacement. That means a middle-of-the-order bat, one which they could potentially acquire over the next few days. It wouldn't be a great surprise if GM Theo Epstein started making inquiries about Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn and Matt Holliday, even if once again, this all amounts to nothing.

Rumor Mill Roundup: July 23

With the trade deadline right around the corner, our MLB editor brings you the top five rumors every day until July 31.

- So what are those pesky Yankees up to anyway? First things first: they are absolutely in the AL East race, just three games behind the Red Sox and 3 1/2 behind division-leading Tampa Bay. They've also got clear needs -- namely pitching depth and offensive help, either at catcher, now that Jorge Posada's season is in doubt, or at one of the corners.


New York's top brass will meet tomorrow in Tampa to discuss what, if any, moves they should make before the deadline, but indications are that the team is willing to deal prospects and make a run. The name with the most heat is Mariners left-hander Jarrod Washburn, who wouldn't be a flashy pickup, but would give the Yankees a reliable innings-eater to put at the back of their rotation. He'd certainly be an upgrade over Darrell Rasner or Sidney Ponson. Seattle is not impressed with center fielder Melky Cabrera, but has been scouting New York's Double-A affiliate Trenton. That's where the Yankees' top hitting prospect, Austin Jackson, has been playing all year.

- Concerns about Huston Street's performance and stuff don't seem to be scaring off teams. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Reds have shown some interest in the Oakland closer. Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty certainly can't consider his team a contender, but there is reason to think it can make a run as soon as next season, and Street isn't eligible to be a free agent for another three years. He also has two players with uncertain futures -- Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. Dunn is the type of player you'd figure A's GM Billy Beane would covet, but he might have to send more than Street to land the slugger.

Dusty Baker Cites On-Base Percentage, World Fails to Collapse

Ah, Dusty Baker. Ah, on-base percentage. The unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. Batman vs. the Joker. Eamonn vs. mayonnaise. These are the great rivalries of our century.

While I may never surrender in my fight against mayo (if I tell you no mayo, do not look at me funny, just don't put that disgusting goop on my sandwich, OK?) we're making headway in the fight between Dusty and OBP. Seriously. In justifying why he's keeping Adam Dunn (very good at baseball) and Ken Griffey, Jr. (good at baseball) in the lineup, Dusty actually cited on-base percentage, his longtime foe. Whatever happened to "walks clog the bases"?
"Their averages are low, but their on-base percentages are still high," Baker said. "Their on-base percentages are higher than some of the guys who are hitting. I know they can hit, but it also helps to get on base and put a pitcher in the stretch. That's the thing. Most starters don't like being in the stretch."
As FJM points out, the notion that the reason why OBP is beneficial is because it puts pitchers in the stretch and not because it means people, you know, aren't making outs is incredibly, totally weird. But it's Dusty. And it's on-base percentage. Whatever the nonsensical means, we should be happy with the end: progress.
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