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From The Windup: NL MVP Race Wide Open, Aramis Ramirez a Dark Horse



From The Windup is FanHouse's daily, extended look at a particular portion of America's pastime.


Though it shouldn't be, as Brinson told us yesterday, the NL Cy Young race is likely a closed deal as things currently stand -- unless Brandon Webb keeps laying eggs. The Rookie of the Year race won't even be a contest with Geovany Soto running away with it. The MVP, however, is wide open.

In order to make sure we leave no stone unturned, let's examine the criteria. First of all, there are two predominant methods taken when people want to argue about MVP.

1. Bloggy/Spreadsheet Guy Who Never Played Baseball Method: Look at VORP. Whoever has the highest VORP should be the MVP, because the game of baseball isn't played on a field with human beings. It's played on a computer spreadsheet with robots that don't feel emotion or pressure.

2. Old, Stubborn Writer Guy Method: Check out the Triple Crown numbers for the everyday players on contending teams. If you have a 1.500 OPS and 200 steals and play Andruw Jones (circa 2003) defense on a last place team, you just don't count. You can't possibly be valuable to a team unless said team is good.

The Flip Side of Surprise Is Disappointment


If you're a baseball fan who likes surprises, then the 2008 season has been a special treat. The Rays are the most notable team that has exceeded expectations, but the Twins, White Sox and Marlins are also surprise contenders.

Of course, those pleasant surprises have come at the expense of several clubs expected to be much better this season. Whether because of a big free-agent signing last winter, a deep October run last season or the (hint, hint) crushing burden of a massive payroll, the baseball landscape is littered with flops as August comes to a close.

The following is a countdown of the seven most disappointing teams this season.

7. Padres: Mired in last place in the abysmal NL West, it's easy to forget that this team won 89 games last year and was a (phantom?) Matt Holliday slide away from a playoff spot. Even when they were winning division titles, the Padres operated on a thin margin. Injuries and underperformance are at the root of their struggles.

Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Brian Giles are the only offensive regulars who have played more than 100 games. Ace Jake Peavy spent a month on the disabled list, while No. 2 starter Chris Young has made only 13 starts. Veteran closer Trevor Hoffman has also been extremely shaky.

Rumor Mill Roundup: July 29

With the trade deadline right around the corner, our MLB editor brings you the top five rumors every day until July 31.

- Mark Teixeira is off the board, leaving a bunch of lesser players in the rumor mill. The best non-Teixeira rumors continue to surround Manny Ramirez, despite the fact that he is unlikely to be moved before the July 31 deadline. The Red Sox might be more reticent than ever to deal Ramirez with Teixeira off the table. He was the most obvious replacement for Ramirez's production (with Kevin Youkilis moving to left field in a potential deal). But Boston seems so fed up with the slugger it might move him anyway. So the question is, where?


The Dodgers have moved to the front of the line for Ramirez, offering an outfielder in return -- believed to be either Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier and perhaps prospects. When Teixeira was still available, it was believed they would spin those players to Atlanta for the first basemen, but the Red Sox could hold onto someone like Kemp, who could equal Ramirez's value when you account for defense. The Diamondbacks are unlikely to make a move for Ramirez, especially considering GM Josh Byrnes' familiarity with the slugger (he worked under Theo Epstein in Boston). Ditto for the Phillies. The Mets are very difficult to read, with the team claiming they have no interest and media reports saying otherwise.

- The Royals could infuse some late life into the outfield market if they decide to make Jose Guillen available. Guillen signed a three-year, $36 million deal with Kansas City this winter, but there are rumors that he's unhappy with manager Trey Hillman. Guillen has denied the reports, but he is not known as a great clubhouse guy and he had a very public and messy feud with Mike Scioscia in his last days with the Angels. On the other hand, he is only 32 and is still productive. After hitting .183 in April, Guillen has hit .288 since.

Rumor Mill Roundup: July 26

With the trade deadline right around the corner, our MLB editor brings you the top five rumors every day until July 31.

- The Mets are continuing to pursue a corner outfielder, but with Pittsburgh's trade of Xavier Nady and Cleveland's trade of Casey Blake, the list of potential additions has dwindled. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are still out there, but New York simply doesn't have the chips to acquire an All-Star caliber bat. Seattle's Raul Ibanez is the one name remaining that the Mets have been linked to and is likely in the team's price range.


GM Omar Minaya probably can't afford to hone in on one target, though, so it's likely he'll make calls over the next few days to gauge what the Padres would want in return for Brian Giles and perhaps what the Reds would want in return for Adam Dunn or Ken Griffey Jr. The Mets are on a hot streak, but the team still has flaws -- flaws that can be taken care of in the next few days.

- Manny Ramirez was a very late scratch for Friday night's game against the Yankees, which the Red Sox lost 1-0, and the Boston Globe's Dan Shaugnessy is wondering if this is the final straw for the slugger in Boston. "Manny Being Manny" is a mantra that has come to mean many different things over the years, and part of it are these little dramas, which usually come to nothing. But the Red Sox have an option on Ramirez for next year, one they aren't even certain they will pick up, so perhaps this time it really is THE time to explore finding Ramirez's replacement. That means a middle-of-the-order bat, one which they could potentially acquire over the next few days. It wouldn't be a great surprise if GM Theo Epstein started making inquiries about Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn and Matt Holliday, even if once again, this all amounts to nothing.

Rumor Mill Roundup: July 21

With the trade deadline right around the corner, our MLB editor brings you the top five rumors every day until July 31.

- The Mets have no idea what to expect from Ryan Church the rest of the way and the Fernando Tatis-Endy Chavez combination in left field probably isn't going to cut, so everyone, including manager Jerry Manuel, is expecting the team to add an outfielder before the trade deadline. Just don't expect that outfielder to be of the Adam Dunn or Matt Holliday variety -- they just don't have the chips. New York has one of the shallowest farm systems in baseball as a consequence of the Johan Santana trade, particularly in the coveted major-league ready category.

That leaves the Mets looking at players like Xavier Nady, Raul Ibanez and Casey Blake, which really is fine. They need an upgrade on what they currently have in left field and some insurance for their injured right fielder to win the NL East, not a star player.

- The Cubs have already added starter Rich Harden and reliever Chad Gaudin, but they're still looking for pitching. A high-ranking team official took in A.J. Burnett's last start for the Blue Jays. A looming DL trip for closer Kerry Wood could change the team's focus, though. Wood's injury is not believed to be serious, but the team's bullpen was heavily taxed over the first half, and now they're down their best arm. Suddenly Damaso Marte, Brian Fuentes and Huston Street have to be looking pretty good to GM Jim Hendry.

Rumor Mill Roundup: July 20

With the trade deadline right around the corner, our MLB editor brings you the top five rumors every day until July 31.

- How much will it cost to pry Matt Holliday away from the Rockies? We might finally have an idea. Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels have inquired about Holliday and Colorado's price started with pitcher Nick Adenhart, Los Angeles' top pitching prospect, and would likely include second baseman Howie Kendrick and either Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders.

Look, it's pretty clear that the Angels are going to coast to the AL West title. It's also become pretty clear over the past few seasons that they need another bat to get out of the divisional round of the playoffs. So it's easy to criticize the L.A. front office for not being aggressive enough in getting another big bopper. But that's an exorbitant price for any player, especially a nice one like Holliday, who happens to be pretty average away from the hitting paradise that is Coors Field. Adenhart and Saunders, in particular, are both a tad overrated, but a trade involving those two and Howie Kendrick would take away players contributing to the Angels right now. That's the definition of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

- As for the other big bat prominently mentioned in rumors, Mark Teixeira, the Braves appear more resolute to hold on to him and make a push in the NL East, despite the fact that the first baseman is likely to walk at the end of the season. Atlanta entered Sunday with the same run differential as the Mets, so perhaps there is reason for optimism. But there is also this: Atlanta is still 5 1/2 games behind New York in the standings and the rotation beyond Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens is in tatters. There is ground to cover and the Braves' best baseball might already be behind them. It might be time to swallow hard and become a seller.

Rumor Mill Roundup: July 19

With the trade deadline right around the corner, our MLB editor brings you the top five rumors every day until July 31.

- The Diamondbacks have lost their grip on first place in the NL West and now they'll be without right fielder Justin Upton for a spell as they try to fend off the Dodgers. The budding 20-year-old star has battled a strained oblique injury since before the All-Star break. Eric Byrnes' season is already in doubt, so this news has to increase the pressure on Arizona GM Josh Byrnes to go out and get an outfielder. We know the Snakes won't rule out Barry Bonds, but Seattle's Raul Ibanez or one of the available Pittsburgh bats -- Xavier Nady or Jason Bay -- are still more likely to wind up in Arizona.

- The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt reports that a top Brewers official is at Yankee Stadium for this weekend's Yankees-A's series scouting players. The player most likely being watched by Milwaukee? Oakland closer Huston Street, who has been effective, though not his usual dominant self this season. The Brewers have bolstered their rotation already by adding CC Sabathia, but the bullpen is still a point of concern. Milwaukee ranks 10th in the NL in bullpen ERA and it will have to get better if the club is going to make a push for the postseason.

Rumor Mill Roundup: July 18

With the trade deadline right around the corner, our MLB editor brings you the top five rumors every day until July 31.

- The Pirates have players to give, players that could really help a contender, guys like Damaso Marte, Jason Bay and Xavier Nady, but don't expect first-year GM Neal Huntington to give them away for nothing writes John Perrotto. Huntington, who already seems eminently more qualified for his job than predecessor Dave Littlefield, is reportedly asking for two advanced prospects and one lower-level prospect for Bay. That's about what he should be asking for considering Bay has bounced back nicely from a rough 2007. A 29-year-old outfielder with a .917 OPS could help a considerable number of contenders.

- Toronto's A.J. Burnett says he does not want nor does he expect to be traded before July 31, and the thing we keep hearing is that there is little movement on Burnett. But with the right-hander expected to opt out of his contract at the end of the year and with the Blue Jays treading water in the AL East, it seems unlikely that will be the case over the next few weeks. Two teams to watch on Burnett: St. Louis and the Mets, particularly if Pedro Martinez's injury is worse than it seems.

Buy or Sell: Los Angeles Dodgers



July 31 is rapidly approaching.
Buy or Sell lets each team know where they stand.

Ahhhh, Ned Colletti. He's famous around these parts, you know. Many believe he's a lame duck GM at this point, what with, oh, signing Andruw Jones to a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal. And the Dodgers stinking. Relatively.

But the thing Ole' Steady Neddy's got going for him is that the Dodgers are in a division that matches Ned in overall mediocrity, the wild, wild NL West, where .500 will take you to the postseason. So what should Ned do, in his potentially final trading deadline hurrah as Dodgers GM?

Buy, of course! Matt Holliday, Mark Teixeira, you name it. Joe Blanton, sure. Overpriced, nearly free agent veterans for potential superstars whose only fault is that they can't listen? That's Ned's wheelhouse, kids.

Buy or Sell: New York Mets



July 31 is rapidly approaching. Buy or Sell lets each team know where they stand on the trade market with the deadline right around the corner.

There was a time not too long ago where the Mets and their fans had a small notion towards selling ... that the team was stuck in mediocrity for too long to have a realistic chance of contending in the N.L. East.

One nine game win streak later, that small notion is out the window.

The truth of the matter is that it would be tough for the Mets to buy or sell. Tough to sell because the Mets are an older roster full of players that are either untouchable (in the case of David Wright, Jose Reyes, or Johan Santana among others) or old/damaged or expensive goods (like Carlos Delgado). And it will be hard for them to buy because most of the good minor league talent went to Minnesota for Santana.
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