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Don't Blame Willie for Delgado's Slow Start

Carlos DelgadoCarlos Delgado opened the year slow, but in case you haven't noticed, he's been raking the ball lately. Before the All-Star break, Delgado hit just .248 with a .748 OPS. Ever since then, he's been hitting .286 with a .972 OPS. Does his revival have something to do with Jerry Manuel replacing Willie Randolph? John Harper of the New York Daily News and Mets assistant GM Tony Bernazard seem to think so:
No player seemingly has benefited more from change than Delgado. His return to form as a feared slugger, after looking ready for retirement early in the season, already had been so remarkable you couldn't help but wonder if he was somehow lacking motivation under Randolph.

[...] "Delgado is such a student of the game," said Bernazard. "If you're running a good game, he knows. When you're running a bad game, he knows."
It's an interesting theory, I suppose, and hey, everybody is entitled to an opinion. But is Delgado's resurgence even that surprising? Part of the reason his early struggles were magnified was because of his strong finish last year. When you look at the numbers, Delgado has consistently improved his OPS after the All-Star break each of the last five years. With few exceptions, it's a trend that's existed his entire career.

To ignore that trend and instead attribute Delgado's current success to Randolph's absence is both mean-spirited and ignorant. If the two developments are at all related, it's the opposite that's true: Randolph is no longer around because Delgado wasn't hitting.

Eye Toward October: Sept. 3

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Champs Getting Stronger: The Red Sox have suddenly opened up a sizable four-game edge in the wild-card race after winning Tuesday while the White Sox and Twins lost. The news gets even better when you consider that Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett are set to return on Friday, with J.D. Drew and pitcher Bartolo Colon possibly returning next week.

It's easy to compare the 2008 Sox to the last Boston team that defended a title. Like this year's version, the 2005 team was ravaged by injuries to key players. There's one major difference, though, and that's the depth in the organization. GM Theo Epstein's vision of making the Red Sox a nine-figure player development machine has bloomed fully, and because of it Boston has a very real chance to repeat.

Their minor league system is among the most robust in the game, far different from the Dan Duquette era, and it's enabled the Red Sox to plug many of the holes they've had over the course of a trying season.

When Julio Lugo went down, Jed Lowrie came up and improved the team. When the team needed a spot starter for Josh Beckett, they turned to pitching prospect Michael Bowden. When the team needed another outfielder because of Drew's injury, they were able to deal a prospect with good upside for Mark Kotsay because of their minor league depth.

From The Windup: The Perplexing 2008 NL Cy Young Race and Considering CC

From The Windup is FanHouse's daily, extended look at a particular portion of America's pastime.

While discussing the Cy Young on Sunday night, Joe Morgan said, predictably, that it was "Brandon Webb's to lose". In fairness, he's probably right. But ... I don't really think he should be. See, the Cy Young is all about perception.

Headshots via Getty Images
Well, not all about perception, but there's a pretty hefty chunk of voting attribution distributed towards the feeling of performance, rather than the strictly statistical discussion of how various pitchers have excelled throughout the season.

If that wasn't the case, then Randy Johnson would have won the Cy Young in 2004, when he very clearly outperformed Roger Clemens on the mound.

In an "ideal" world, there would be someone stuck squarely in the upper left quadrant above -- a pitcher with obviously dominant stats that were publicly recognized (because his team didn't stink). That rarely happens, though, and this year's Cy Young race is, when you really start breaking it down, one of the most intriguing we've seen in a few years.

After all, we have the heavy favorite in Webb, the best pitcher in the National League in Tim Lincecum, the discussion incumbent (Johan Santana), the early season surprise (Edinson Volquez) and a few darkhorses in Danny Haren and Ryan Dempster, the latter which is nothing short of shocking.

See, it's perception that led smart baseball guru types Bill James and Rob Neyer to create a formula entirely devoted to predicting the Cy Young balloting. Not "should win" mind you, but "will win" based entirely on what the voters tend to look for in their winner.

As you can see from the list, Salomon Torres is the eighth most likely pitcher to win the CY. I'm willing to bet he won't get any votes come the end of the year. But a guy who deserves some votes, or at least some Award-worthy buzz, for what he's done since the beginning of July, is CC Sabathia.

Eye Toward October: Sept. 2


With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.


- Arizona Aces Faltering:
One of the reasons I, and several other pundits, think the Diamondbacks will be a very dangerous team in October is because of the Brandon Webb-Dan Haren-Randy Johnson trio at the top of their rotation. It has the potential to be devastating in the postseason, but if they don't get their collective acts together, it might be a moot point.

Haren, Webb and Johnson have started the last three games for the Snakes, putting up this cumulative line: 13 IP, 24 H, 16 ER. All three are seasoned pros, and if this were June or July, this streak would barely be worth batting an eyelash over.

It's September, though. Time is short and the Diamondbacks' edge in the NL West is slim. Arizona can't afford another stretch like this from the top three pitchers on its staff.

The Dugout: Tom Nieto's New Job

BREAKING: Tom Nieto is in the news! Nieto has agreed to take a coaching staff position with the Cincinnati Reds. Boy, he sure wasn't out of work long!

No, I'm kidding. Of course Tom Nieto is still unemployed. I set up a Google Alert for "tom nieto" a couple of weeks ago. Nothing. No mention in a single news story. Well, we at The Dugout refuse to allow his name to be shoved into the oubliette of time and forgotten. FanHouse is your one-stop shop for Nieto-centric speculation. You can count on us.

Let's see what our friend is up to these days! This evening's Dugout is after the jump.

On Deck: Uno Cinco



On Deck is FanHouse's look at the day's most intriguing baseball matchups.

New York Mets (75-60) at Florida Marlins (68-67) 7:10 PM ET

Hey, why not? Beltran's in Florida, just like Chad Johnson was when he changed his name. And after last night's grand slam against the Marlins to cap a ninth inning rally which started with two outs and nobody on, Carlos Beltran can give himself a cool nickname like Uno Cinco and then take a trip to Broward and get that name changed. Of course, I'm sure that Uno Cinco would have much rather done what he did last night against Adam Wainwright in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, but that's being picky.

Kid Pays Hefty Price for Souvenir


http://view.break.com/562764 - Watch more free videos

This could have been a much worse accident than it was, as the above shows a kid falling over the railing at Citizens Bank Park on going after a batting practice drive during the Mets series.

Gotta say this kid showed some guts trying to walk it off. I can safely say if it was me I would have stayed still and cried like a baby. This kid obviously comes from the school of "rub some dirt on it and suck it up." Good job.

Arm Bash: The World of Issac

What's Left for NL Playoff Contenders?


Somehow, only five weeks remain in the baseball season. Other than injuries, a contending team's schedule might be the biggest factor in determining which teams get a shot at postseason glory and which spend October on the golf course.

The following is a quick breakdown of what the NL teams still fighting for a playoff spot will face over the season's final weeks.

Brewers

The Good: There are plenty of bottom-feeding clubs left on Milwaukee's schedule. The Brewers will play six against the Pirates and Reds as well as four against the Padres down the stretch. In all, 16 of their final 31 games will be against sub-.500 competition. In addition, they only face the Cardinals -- the team chasing them in the wild-card race -- two more times.

The Bad: The Brew Crew still have six games left against the Cubs, including a three-game set to finish the season. Milwaukee might want to lock up the wild card before that final series.

Key Stretch: From Sept. 11-21, Milwaukee will embark on its final road trip of the season. The Brewers will head to Philadelphia for four games and then Wrigley Field for three before ending the trip in Cincinnati. They'll have a chance to catch the Cubs over the final 2 1/2 weeks of the season, but if they take care of business, the NL Central title should be a point of pride more than anything else.

Mr. Met Brings Out the Gangster in You



Mr. Met has apparently taken Jerry Manuel's "gangster" rep a little bit too far, as he is seen here giving the throat slash gesture to a young Yankee fan in the stands. Considering how big Mr. Met's head is, that's a lot of throat to slash.

Ken Griffey Jr. demands an apology.

John Maine's Season Might Be Over

John Maine was a guy that I had expected to have a huge year for the Mets in '08, and after starting out 5-2 it seemed he was on his way. But high pitch counts that contributed to short outings held him back, and perhaps all those pitches led to the pain in his shoulder which kept him out for a couple of weeks earlier this month.

But whether they did or didn't, the pain hasn't completely gone away with rest and rehab, and now Maine's been diagnosed with a bone spur in his throwing shoulder. If it sounds painful, it probably is ... and that along with a drop in his velocity has Jerry Manuel concerned enough to consider shutting Maine down for good this season.
"He's different than what he was earlier in the season, as far as velocity," Manuel, the Mets' interim manager said before the loss to the Astros Sunday. (...)

Manuel said it would not be possible for Maine to rest for a few weeks and somehow be back by the end of the season. "If he got shut down, he would be done," Manuel said. (...)

Maine said there is nothing he can do to relieve the pain -- other than take pain-killing medication -- but he said he has been assured he cannot injure himself further by pitching.

"I can't do anything worse," he said. "If it's tolerable, then I'll continue."
This would have been a much worse situation had Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey hadn't made huge strides to be better and more consistent this season. But this would take away the option of moving Maine to help a shaky bullpen if the Mets were to make the playoffs. Now, without Maine, that "if" becomes more daunting.
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